COVID-19 had a profound impact on global economic output, resulting in a contraction of approximately 3% in world GDP in 2020. Furthermore, the impact was not only significant but also unevenly distributed, with certain nations being more severely affected than others. While the effects of COVID-19 on economic performance are well-documented on both global and national levels, one may ask: what effect did COVID-19 have on a regional scale?

In this analysis, we develop a simple model to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the private economic output of different municipalities in Bahrain. To the authors' knowledge, this is not only the first study to explore the municipal-level effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth but also the first to estimate private economic activity at the municipal level for the Kingdom of Bahrain. As of 2022, our results indicate that most municipalities had returned to their pre-pandemic levels of economic activity. However, when compared to pre-pandemic economic trends, the results show that the Muharraq and Northern Municipalities were the most affected compared to the rest of the economy.